Quarantine worse than Coronavirus? Crippled economies and Authoritarianism

The real world of evidence, shows that coronavirus overwhelmingly hits vulnerable populations (yes, there are always outliers, but these people are not being tested for co-pathgens, nor do we know anything about their immune systems etc.). 

The IFR is actually very low. If Ontario did absolutely nothing (which I am not advocating) it would still be 0.75%. A search of the website of Health Canada, the Ontario Ministry of Health, as well as the websites of Toronto and Ottawa Public Health and have no published data on correlation between age, comorbidities and the novel coronavirus. 

However, New York Public Health has been transparent, and here are statistics: 

Here are current world statistics: 

The Centre for Evidence Based Research (CEMB) Oxford, includes the following: 

Comorbidities will have a significant impact to increase the IFR: those with ≥ 3 comorbidities are at much higher risk. Modelling the data on the prevalence of comorbidities is essential to understand the CFR and IFR by age (the prevalence of comorbidities is highly age-dependent and is higher in socially deprived populations). It is also not clear if the presence of other circulating influenza illnesses acts to increase the IFR (testing for co-pathogens is not occurring). And whether certain populations (e.g., those with heart conditions) are more at risk.

• In those without pre-existing health conditions, and over 70, the data is reassuring that the IFR will likely not exceed 1%.
• Mortality in children seems to be near zero (unlike flu) which is also reassuring and will act to drive down the IFR significantly.

It is now essential to understand whether individuals are dying with or from the disease.Understanding this issue is critical. If, for instance, 80% of those over 80 die with the disease then the CFR  would be near 3% in this age group as opposed to 15%. Cause of death information from death certificates is often inaccurate and incomplete, particularly for conditions such as pneumonia. These factors would act to lower the IFR.

Antibody testing will provide an accurate understanding of how many people have been infected so far, and permit a more accurate estimate of the IFR.

Read the latest (Updated April 3, 2020) full report 

John Hopkins University also carries updated information, go read it here. 

Notice what keeps coming up again and again? Pre-existing health conditions, and additional comorbidities. I have neighbours who have been induced into a near state of panic. Another person told me she knows of someone so terrified, she has not been out of her home for a couple of weeks. 

The data is becoming clearer every day. Even the "stark" numbers projected by Ontario needs to be unpacked to see the proper picture. We are not dealing with the Black Death. Not even close.